NEW DELHI: By 2020, Indian consumers will be paying not more than Rs 50 per GB for mobile data where in 2016, an Indian mobile data user was paying Rs 228 per GB on an average, Analysys Mason said in an ET Telecom webinar.
In a scenario where price per GB declines to Rs 50, the LTE data usage would go up to 6-7 GB per month and assuming 17% Wi-Fi offload as per current trends, 4G data usage on cellular networks would reach 5-6 GB per month, analysts from the research firm predicted. The 3G data usage is expected to reach 1.5-2 GB by 2020 because 3G tariffs are expected to drop in-line with 4G tariffs.
Also, it is because of Reliance Jio that by 2020, 80% of India’s population will be able to afford a 4G phone which would otherwise have been 68% had Jio not introduced its 4G VoLTE feature phone.
“In India contribution of voice is still higher around 60%-70% but we expect India to move in a direction where voice contributes only 30-40%, as per the international benchmarks,” said Siddharth Thakkar, Consultant, Analysys Mason.
But to sustain a viable business case in future where high data consumption can be catered to, Indian MNOs will be required to have more than 17-18% market share and will have to bring down the cost per GB for the end user to Rs 30-40.
Besides this, the operators will also need a large amount of spectrum, including sub-GHz spectrum, in order to provide extensive coverage as well as to support the traffic at a great scale, the research firm said. Also, to support the tariff reduction to Rs 50/GB, telcos will need to target 5GB/month data usage per sub.
Further, the telcos will have to keep an annual capex of Rs 65-75 billion and opex of Rs 200-250 billion to bring the total cost to around Rs 300 billion for business viability.
However, the analysts said that due to the advent of VoLTE and the launch of affordable VoLTE phones mainly triggered by Jio, the competition in the market could intensify and the incumbents could lose some of their low-end voice subscribers.
Amidst all this, the telcos will also have to factor in the increased GST rate of 18%, the burden of which is expected to be shared between the customers and service providers with customers bearing the majority of the burden.
To accommodate the increased tax rate telcos may decline the talktime on top ups for prepaid users. However, certain telcos are expected to absorb the added tax in full talktime and select data top up plans. For postpaid users, the 3% increase may be directly passed on in the bills. (Source from Economictimes)
Transcom Instruments founded in 2005 and headquartered in Shanghai, is a leading innovator and manufacturer of radio frequency and wireless communication testing instruments and professional solutions in China. Transcom has developed a full range of products and solutions adopted to the current testing market, including telecommunication, manufacturing, education and system integration. Transcom’s product portfolio breaks down to four categories: cellular network critical communication planning/maintenance/optimization, manufacturing testing solutions, educational instrument/equipment and spectrum monitoring sensors for system integration.